SENTINELAICommunity Resilience
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Data-driven anticipatory intelligence

Early Warning Outlook

Prospective conditions for Garissa, translated through documented deterministic indicators.

Prospective decision support — not current risk The outlook cannot alter the authoritative current assessment. It uses one best-match provider forecast and no generative AI.

Next 1 hours

Moderate

27/100

Moderate confidence

  1. EventForecast indicators cross the moderate reference within 1 hours.
  2. ExposureKnown vulnerable locations warrant attention.
  3. Possible impactLimited localized effects are possible.
  4. ActionReview the evidence and maintain closer scheduled monitoring.
  • Forecast Rain Accumulation 0.0 mm Contribution 0 points
  • Forecast Wind Peak 24.7 km per hour Contribution 12 points
  • Forecast Temperature Peak 28.0 celsius Contribution 10 points
  • Provider Precipitation Probability 40.0 percent Contribution 5 points

This deterministic outlook uses one best-match provider forecast. It is not an ensemble probability and may change with later model runs.

Next 6 hours

Moderate

27/100

Moderate confidence

  1. EventForecast indicators cross the moderate reference within 6 hours.
  2. ExposureKnown vulnerable locations warrant attention.
  3. Possible impactLimited localized effects are possible.
  4. ActionReview the evidence and maintain closer scheduled monitoring.
  • Forecast Rain Accumulation 0.0 mm Contribution 0 points
  • Forecast Wind Peak 24.7 km per hour Contribution 12 points
  • Forecast Temperature Peak 28.0 celsius Contribution 10 points
  • Provider Precipitation Probability 40.0 percent Contribution 5 points

This deterministic outlook uses one best-match provider forecast. It is not an ensemble probability and may change with later model runs.

Next 24 hours

Moderate

30/100

Moderate confidence

  1. EventForecast indicators cross the moderate reference within 24 hours.
  2. ExposureKnown vulnerable locations warrant attention.
  3. Possible impactLimited localized effects are possible.
  4. ActionReview the evidence and maintain closer scheduled monitoring.
  • Forecast Rain Accumulation 1.5 mm Contribution 1 points
  • Forecast Wind Peak 24.7 km per hour Contribution 12 points
  • Forecast Temperature Peak 32.4 celsius Contribution 12 points
  • Provider Precipitation Probability 40.0 percent Contribution 5 points

This deterministic outlook uses one best-match provider forecast. It is not an ensemble probability and may change with later model runs.

Next 72 hours

Moderate

31/100

Moderate confidence

  1. EventForecast indicators cross the moderate reference within 72 hours.
  2. ExposureKnown vulnerable locations warrant attention.
  3. Possible impactLimited localized effects are possible.
  4. ActionReview the evidence and maintain closer scheduled monitoring.
  • Forecast Rain Accumulation 1.9 mm Contribution 0 points
  • Forecast Wind Peak 28.7 km per hour Contribution 14 points
  • Forecast Temperature Peak 33.8 celsius Contribution 12 points
  • Provider Precipitation Probability 40.0 percent Contribution 5 points

This deterministic outlook uses one best-match provider forecast. It is not an ensemble probability and may change with later model runs.

Evidence-grounded explanation

Anticipatory Intelligence Brief

Deterministic fallback

Garissa outlook remains moderate through the longest horizon

The deterministic horizons have been reviewed. The current assessment remains authoritative; prospective conditions should be monitored against later provider runs.

next 72 hours If The latest provider forecast remains materially unchanged.

Limited localized effects are possible.

Preparedness actions

This fallback uses one best-match provider forecast. It does not represent ensemble agreement or probability of impact. This advisory brief cannot change deterministic scores, outlooks, current risk, or alerts.

Monitoring and forecast evidence comes from SentinelAI's persisted data pipeline. WMO and IFRC are cited only as recognized preparedness-guidance references; they do not supply or endorse this SentinelAI assessment.

Interpretation boundary

What this means

Rain accumulation, peak wind, peak temperature, and the provider's precipitation probability contribute through fixed, inspectable references. Precipitation probability describes whether precipitation may occur; it is not a probability of flooding, damage, or SentinelAI risk.

These initial operational references support demonstration and review. Local authorities must validate thresholds against hazards, exposure, terrain, and community operating procedures.